30 September (WNN) — The latest tropical storm of the 2021 hurricane season developed over the eastern Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon, named Victor, the second-to-last moniker on the season’s first list.
The system, previously dubbed Tropical Depression 20, formed on Wednesday morning before rapidly strengthening during the day. It was located about 630 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of 5 a.m. Friday, with maximum sustained winds reaching 60 mph. It was moving to the northwest at 15 mph.
According to AccuWeather meteorologist Randy Adkins, conditions will be favorable for strengthening over the next few days.
Adkins said, “A brief window will exist for the storm to strengthen into a hurricane, but increasing wind shear and dry air will reverse that trend, leading to a gradual increase in wind intensity this weekend into the next week.” It is likely to decrease gradually.” “As it currently stands, this storm will not pose a direct threat to land, although residents of the Azores should closely monitor the progress of the system,” said Adkins, about 950 miles west of Portugal But referring to the island chain in the Atlantic.
Forecasters expect a south-to-southwest steering breeze to develop over the mid-Atlantic in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Victor. These winds will move the system away from the east-central part of the basin and off the Caribbean Islands, Bermuda and North America from the end of this week to next week.
Victor is one of two areas of turbulent weather that forecasters are monitoring over the eastern Atlantic.
A few hundred miles to the west of the tropical storm and several hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, another area of turbulent weather, also known as a tropical wave, appeared poorly organized as of Wednesday. Gave and all but fell on Thursday. Delays in organization are highly likely to prevent this more westerly tropical wave from developing into a tropical depression and hurricane.
The lack of development so far is significant for the Leeward and Windward Islands because this more westerly feature was more likely to reach the islands during the early or middle part of next week. Delays in development may allow increased wind shear near leewards and windwards to prevent storm formation altogether.
“A broad area of wind shear is forecast to increase and remain in the wake of Hurricane Sam this week,” said AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Reno. In this case, hard winds from the west and southwest will develop and expand at the middle level of the atmosphere.
“This belt of wind shear will extend from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean to the mid-Atlantic and is likely to be at its peak later this week,” Reno said. Any tropical feature that tries to form or move in a belt of wind shear is likely to conflict.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, apart from Sam, what was once Peter missed his chance to redevelop. The organization will be monitoring a small swirl of clouds to the southwest of Peter, but wind shear could prevent any strong development of that disturbance.
The region from the Caribbean to the Atlantic coasts of the United States could be in trouble next week.
There is some early indication that one or more areas of low pressure may develop from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and perhaps as far north as the Carolina coast next week. A tropical system is likely to develop over this broad area of low pressure, and will need to be monitored. Stopping or swaying of wind shear can act as a deterrent against rapid growth.
The area just off the Florida Atlantic coast as far as the Bahamas and the central Caribbean may be the most likely places to organize a system.
“An anticipated southward dip in the jet stream over the eastern US could lift any low pressure in the southwest portion of the Atlantic basin and direct it northward over the next week, and there is some possibility that the low center may may take on tropical characteristics,” Adkins said. However, if the jet stream does not raise this low center, assuming it develops in the first place, conditions may be more favorable for tropical development by next weekend.
Despite tropical development in the southwestern part of the Atlantic Basin, a broad area of unstable weather conditions can develop from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and the eastern part of the Americas, and regions of clouds, rain and thunderstorms in coastal waters.
With Victor forming in the southeast Atlantic this week, that leaves Wanda as the only name on the pre-selected list for 2021. The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t end until November 30.
After Wanda is formed, forecasters will use a supplementary list prepared by the World Meteorological Organization to name the system. The list will replace the Greek alphabet, which was used in the past to name storms between two hyperactive seasons: 2020 and 2005.