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False-flag operations that Ukraine and Western intelligence services had warned about for weeks appeared to begin Friday as a car exploded in Donetsk, the largest city in the breakaway areas of Donbass, and as separatist leaders called for a mass evacuation of civilians to Russia.
The call for an emergency evacuation was issued by Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, one of two Russian-backed separatist governments, in a speech in which he claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was planning a military attack — an allegation that drew swift, forceful denials from the Ukrainian government.
Western powers, including the United States, have warned for weeks that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use some type of fabricated provocation in the separatist areas as justification for a military strike or even a widescale invasion of Ukraine.
For that reason, Washington and the capitals of other NATO allies have strongly pressed Zelenskiy to limit his military’s response to ceasefire violations and to avoid being provoked into a conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences for his country. Georgia is widely viewed as having fallen into such a Russian trap in 2008, leading to a brief, disastrous war.
The effort to create an appearance of danger for pro-Russian civilians seemed ham-handed at best. There were no reports of injuries from the car bombing, which occurred near an administrative government building.
And the Russian news site Znak site reported that the regional government of Rostov, where potentially more than 3 million evacuees would be sent, had only learned of the situation on the news.
But it was unclear any of that would matter. Putin’s and Dmitri Peskov, initially responded to news of an evacuation by telling Russian news outlets: “I don’t know what’s going on with Pushil But later, Peskov said that Putin had ordered Russia’s emergency services minister to travel to Rostov to help manage the situation, and had also ordered emergency payments of 10,000 rubles, or about €115, to each refugee.
There were also unconfirmed reports that Pushilin’s video, and a similar video message from the head of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, had actually been recorded two days earlier.
“President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will soon give an order to the military to go on the offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics,” Pushilin said in his video.
“Therefore, from today, February 18, a mass centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said. “First of all, women, children and the elderly are subject to evacuation. We kindly ask you to listen and make the right decision. Temporary departure will save the life and health of you and your loved ones.”
In fact, many residents of the occupied areas fled long ago because of the war that has been raging in Donbass for nearly eight years. The United Nations High Commissioner of Refugees estimates that more than 700,000 people were internally displaced because of the long-running conflict.
In any event, several government ministries in Kyiv quickly issued forceful denials of any attack.
“Ukrainian citizens live on both sides of the line,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said. “Their peace, security and prosperity are an absolute priority for the Ukrainian state.
Allegations that the Ukrainian authorities allegedly intend to launch an offensive in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are untrue.”
The ministry added: “Ukraine also does not carry out or plan any sabotage in Donbass. We categorically reject Russia’s attempts to aggravate the already tense security situation. We remain steadfastly committed to the political-diplomatic settlement, and together with our partners we are making every effort to reduce tensions and keep the situation in line with the diplomatic dialogue.”
Western governments have been compiling detailed lists of examples of Russian disinformation that could potentially be used by Putin to justify an invasion or other attack of Ukraine. The Russian president has warned that he could be forced to take “military-technical” measures if the West does not respond adequately to a raft of security guarantees that he demanded in December.
The US and NATO rejected most of those demands, including a guarantee that Ukraine never join the alliance and the removal of all allied forces from Eastern Europe as “non-starters.” But they have said they are willing to negotiate with Moscow on an array of other issues, including nuclear arms control.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines in Donbass have expressed frustration at the orders from Kyiv to avoid retaliating against ceasefire violations by the separatist side. And Western officials have repeatedly praised Ukraine for showing restraint in the face of the menacing threat of more than 100,000 Russian troops and heavy weapons massed on its borders.
On Friday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry also flatly denied any plan to attack the occupied areas, and accused the separatists of being responsible for a spike in ceasefire violations in recent days, including shelling that damaged two schools.
“While shelling Ukrainian educational facilities and residential buildings, the Russian mercenaries at the same time are spreading information about alleged offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the temporarily occupied territories,” the defense ministry said. “This is disinformation.”
Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and former world boxing champion, who was attending the Munich Security Conference, had a different word for it. “Bullshit,” he told POLITICO.
Erin Banco contributed reporting.
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