According to various reports, the number of cattle in the US will decrease in 2023 due to the drought caused by the La Nina phenomenon. To avoid losses, farmers would send more animals, especially bovine females, to slaughterhouses.
The United States is also affected by the La Nina phenomenon, but the country does not experience heavy rains, but rather droughts. According to an article on the Drewers website, 2022 will be remembered in the US for the historic drought that forced the liquidation of herds,
It’s no secret that bovine sacrifices arrived above average levelor throughout the year. The article’s author noted that many of the states with the largest beef cow inventories are suffering from drought for most of the 2022 growing season.
However, declining bovine inventories in the United States are nothing new. Data from Darrell Peel, an economist at Oklahoma State University, shows a steady decline since 2018 over 31.5 million to 29.6 million in 2022,
Due to large-scale drought-caused liquidations, few calves were released to market early and fewer calves were retained, leading to higher feedlot inventories in 2022. (Read: Here’s the outlook for US meat exports through the end of the year and into 2023,
“With the drought conditions continuing, It is unclear when herd liquidation will end and herd rebuilding may begin, However, it is clear that production in feedlots and slaughter will decline in 2023. How much it will fall depends on when drought conditions improve.
For its part, the Midwest Messenger Livestock Roundup portal noted that it Fourth consecutive year of herd liquidation and third year of a La Nina event, The greatest liquidation occurred in the central plains and the driest regions of the country from the south.
This is the reason why a large number of heifers are being slaughtered in the industry. The slaughter process begins with older and less productive cattle, but if conditions become more difficult, they will move on to middle-aged, more productive cattle.
Nebraska is a state with more cattle killed by producers than any other state in the Middle East. Elliot Dennis, a livestock marketing and risk management specialist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension, explained that this is due to the best selling prices.
,Worth a lot more than what we’ve seen in recent years, (…) Although we were a little more aggressive than some states in the central region, we saw more sales in the southwest and southern plains, where the drought was more extreme,” he said.
Livestock markets are cyclical in nature. Higher prices mean more cattle production, which leads to more cattle and lower prices. In 2019 and 2020, prices came down drastically during the pandemic. But now they are on the rise due to drought as well as high input, energy and labor costs.
This means that due to short supply, prices may increase in the next 3-4 years. Dennis argued This short supply will lead to higher prices in 2023 and 2024, (Took: Beef production trends in developed countries to 2022,
Rabobank estimates that four years of deep herd liquidation and minimal heifer retention due to the ongoing U.S. drought will ultimately impact beef production. US production will fall 3% in 2023, or between 400,000 and 500,000 tonnes per year.,
If the US experiences drought-breaking rains, producers will resort to rebuilding herds, further reducing beef production. The United States will look to the global market to fill this gap through imports, Increase export opportunities for others including Australia,