Wednesday, November 29, 2023

US employment surprises as September rises

According to data from the US Department of Labor, The number of non-farm payrolls rose in the US by 336,000 people in September, a figure higher than last month’s increase of 227,000 jobs, which was revised upward. The reading exceeded the 170,000 net jobs expected by the FactSet analyst consensus. The reading represents the highest job creation in the last eight months (since January 2023), and more than the creation of 70,000 – 100,000 jobs needed each month to keep up with the growth of the working age population. For its part, and according to the same source, 263,000 private jobs were created in September, the highest figure since January and above analysts’ forecasts, which were 160,000 jobs. Employment gains occurred in entertainment and hospitality (96,000 jobs); above average monthly gains of 61,000 jobs over the past 12 months; in government (73,000 jobs), also above the average monthly gain of 47,000 jobs over the past 12 months; in health services (41,000 jobs); in professional, scientific and technical services (29,000 jobs); and social assistance (25,000 jobs). Employment showed little change in other major industries, such as mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; produces; wholesale trade; retail commerce; financial affairs; and other services.

The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% in September from the previous month, a rate that was the highest since February 2022. The reading slightly exceeded the 3.7% rate expected by the FactSet analyst consensus. On the other hand, The labor force participation rate also remained unchanged at 62.8%the highest level since February 2020.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the US rose 0.2% in September to $33.88 in September, the same pace as last month, and slightly below analysts’ forecasts, which were for an increase of 0.3%. At a year-over-year rate, average hourly earnings rose 4.2% in September, the lowest increase since June 2021, and below analyst estimates and the increase registered in August of 4.3% .

On his part, The number of weekly working hours of non-agricultural private employees remained unchanged in September compared to August, at 34.4 line with analysts’ predictions.

Valuation: Although at first the US non-farm payrolls numbers for September, which exceeded expectations, were not well received by the European and US bond and stock markets, the second reading of The same served to calm spirits and causing a sharp rise. return the stock markets of the two regions, whose indices ended the day with a lot of progress. The reaction in the bond markets was minimal, although it served to limit the losses incurred after the publication of the figures.

It is a fact that the US labor market remains more stable than the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like, especially after the rate increase process it implemented, in recent months the increase in wages continues in moderation, which is in annual terms. at 3.4% in the month of September, a rate that is well in line with inflation of 2%. Therefore, everything seems to indicate that the US labor market remains healthy without creating excessive pressure on wages, which is positive in terms of moderating inflation. This context fits well with the “soft landing” scenario for the economy that the Fed is trying to achieve. After the publication of the data, futures markets gave only an 11% probability that the Fed will raise its rates again at the meeting. which will be held at the beginning of November.

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Desk
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