The shipment of German Leopard main battle tanks and American Abrams marks a change in the type of military aid that the West (NATO, US, EU) has provided to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. But, according to analysts consulted by RTVE.es, at the moment it has importance, more symbolic than real,
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyit ensures New help brings them closer to victory, Moscow admits NATO is “directly” involved in the war, and warns that shipments of US Abrams tanks in particular are “dangerous”.
Beyond propaganda statements, it remains to be seen whether the supply of tanks actually causes a change on the battlefield, or even an enhancement, or if it should be interpreted more as a should Message of unity against Russia In a war that is approaching its first year but shows no sign of ending anytime soon.
little immediate impact on the battlefield
It all depends on whether after the gesture (the announcement of the dispatch of tanks) a Effective, fast and adequate supply, Zelensky himself conditioned the effectiveness of tanks to “speed and volume”.
For the new weapons to have a real effect on the battlefield, large numbers (between 100 and 300 tanks) were required; crew training (which may take weeks or months); ongoing logistics support; arms and ammunition; The participation of other armored vehicles and sappers … and air cover,
So far they’ve only made one firm commitment 32 panther 2 cars (14 from Germany, 14 from Poland and 4 from Canada), as well as 31 American Abrams and another dozen British Challengers. Several European countries have Leopards in their arsenal, but it is unclear how many or when they will arrive, as is the case with Spain. It should also be taken into account that the communication systems of different cars are often incompatible with each other (as is the case between the Leopard and the Abrams).
Enrique AyalaAn analyst from Fundación Alternativas explained in La Noche en 24 Horas on TVE that “from what we know, and the amounts that are considered”, with the cars “They’re not going to make a big difference on the battlefieldBecause of their numbers and logistical problems that would make their use very difficult, and because of the lack of air support needed for an armored invasion. ,Ukraine has ordered 300But bringing them together is very complicated,” he says.
The admiral, on his part, said, “This delivery is only the beginning and in all likelihood there will be more deliveries to come.” juan rodriguez garrett, “With the current expectations, around 200 could possibly be provided, but I have no doubt that if more are needed, European countries and the US will send more,” he assured TVE’s Canal 24H.
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Message to Russia and symbolic commitment to Ukraine
Having ruled out a direct and immediate impact on the battlefield, it is worth asking about the political consequences.
“The judgment fulfills an important function: Send a message to the Kremlin that the West is still united And that the intention to support Ukraine has not weakened, that it will be supported as long as it is necessary and with the necessary content”, Enrique Ayala underlines.
“It may end convince Moscow that their victory is not possibleWhich will bring him more easily to the negotiating table,” he said.
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,Tanks themselves are not going to change the war“, the principal investigator of the Elcano Royal Institute (RIE), acknowledges in RTVE.es, Mira Milosevic-Juristi’s statements, but they have an impact on the “message and narrative”.
“This is a very important message from the West, from Russia, the United States and the European Union, that they are really ready to support and defend Ukraine. This is a very important moment – the researchers point out – because The West has broken a taboo, because the tank is a weapon that is more offensive than defensive, that’s the turning point.”
for Robin NiblettFormer director of Chatham House and member of the Aspen Institute Spain, explains Leopard Shipment 2″unwillingness to admit to the world [el presidente ruso, Vladímir] Putin wanted to build in Europe,
“It’s important because symbolic cause – Niblett declares in Las Manas de RNE – In the first place, this is a significant change because it says first that the western side, NATO is going to support Ukraine in this next phase of the war which could last at least another yearrecognition of a reality which is shocking to many Europeans”.
Second, continues Niblett, it reflects the Western agreement that “ukraine can’t lose“. “It’s not the same as helping them win to drive the Russians out of all of Ukraine, it would take a lot longer, but it means the Ukrainians don’t lose.”
Russia will respond with more mobilization of troops
Going a step further in favor of Ukraine means ignoring Russian threats, including nuclear ones. German Chancellor announcing the dispatch of the leopard at the Bundestag, olaf scholzasked for the confidence of those Germans who fear that the situation would get out of control, and assured that he would do everything possible so that NATO is not in direct conflict with Russia,
Milosevic-Juristi that excludes the possibility of escalation leading to direct confrontation, because neither side is interested. He insisted, “Russia has no interest in entering a direct war with NATO, because it could lose it, it would be suicide.”
RIE researcher believes Moscow will respond on the ground increasing recruitment, ,Putin may still promote a general mobilizationAnd Russia can counter the superiority of military weapons with a large number of troops,” he says.
Garrett, for his part, believes that “we shouldn’t pay too much attention to Russian statements” because “there is a reality, and that is Russia is currently unable to advance Because he is using everything he has against Ukraine.”
Aviation, the new “red line”
According to the RIE researcher, the “red line” for Russia, planes will be shipped, Which can hardly be operated by Ukrainians. ,Entry of F-16 will mean increased tensionBut I don’t think any side has any interest, for the time being the conflict in Ukraine is over,” Milosevic-Juristi underlines.
Ukraine has requested the planes since the start of the conflict, and countries such as Poland and the Baltic republics support the request, but Scholz has categorically rejected that possibility.,
“Kyiv has already asked Germany to deliver Tornados or Eurofighter, but I think Germany has reached the limit of what it can do“, admits Enrique Ayala.
“We’ll see what the US does, because Ukrainian crews have been training there for a long time, and the Netherlands has said it might give up the F-16. We would be talking about a huge increase. The problem is that Scholz and [el presidente francés, Emmanuel] macron is that They Want to Help Ukraine, But Don’t Want to Sideline Russia much to provoke climbing that can be dangerous, It’s a very difficult balance,” explains the analyst at Fundación Alternativas.
Biden also denied sending aircraft at the start of the invasion, saying it could lead to a “world war”. But then he also refused to send the tank. media like financial Times why political man Notify that the debate is open.
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