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Saturday, January 22, 2022

What are the Dolphins’ playoff chances once they are back at .500? What if they won? And which one other result makes the biggest difference?

The Miami Dolphins’ improbable 1-7 run in playoff contention continued on Sunday with a sixth straight win and returned to .500 at 7-7 with three regular-season games remaining.

When the Dolphins upset the Baltimore Ravens 3–7 on November 11, the race up to this point appeared realistic when looking at the schedule. If they can beat the Ravens, they can beat the Jets twice – the latest 31-24 result at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday – and the Giants and Panthers at home.

He did all that. Now, the schedule has turned tough for the final three-game stretch. Miami has road games at the New Orleans Saints (7–7) and Tennessee Titans (9–5) and a home final against the New England Patriots (9–5) on the horizon.

If the Dolphins want to convert this streak into a playoff berth, they’ll probably have to win them all. They surrendered any margin to error when they went on a seven-game losing streak that did not allow for last-second losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons.

If the Dolphins move up the table, Miami’s playoff chances are pretty good. According to FiveThirtyEight, a 10-7 finish, regardless of any other outcome, gives the Dolphins a 70% chance of making the AFC playoffs. After their victory over the Jets and other league results, they finished on Sunday, with a 10% probability, so the biggest key is to win.

Any single defeat for a 9-8 record significantly crushed the Dolphins’ playoff hopes. If it’s next week for the Saints on Monday Night Football, the odds are back to 10%. Lost to Titans on January 2nd and win to the other two, and it’s 6%. The finale with the Patriots is the most important, as it gives Miami a 4% chance of dropping it after topping the Saints and Titans.

Therefore, we have established that the vast majority of AFC teams for wild-card playoff spots are unlikely to give way to the Dolphins with a single defeat. Either way, they’ll need help elsewhere.

What other result is most important to a 10-7 Dolphins team that wins post season?

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The answer can be found in Sunday’s Bills at Patriots divisional matchup this week. Before the Dolphins play their next game on December 27, they’ll know if they need the biggest help, which is Buffalo’s win over New England.

This result alone increases the Dolphins’ chances of making the playoffs from 10% to 14%, but if coupled with the Dolphins sweep of their remaining games, which they need to pull off anyway, it makes all the difference. Is. The combination of a Bills win and three Dolphins win at Foxboro on Sunday boosts Miami by 98 percent.

That’s because that scenario means Buffalo will overtake New England in the AFC East, and the Dolphins, in this case outclassing the Patriots, will own a wild-card tiebreaker on top of them. In contrast, this season the Dolphins were swept off the bills, so they want to avoid any tiebreak scenarios involving Buffalo. If the Dolphins win on Sunday and the Patriots beat the Bills, Miami’s chances drop to 52 percent.

And immediately, who should the Dolphins vest in Monday’s Browns-Raiders game that was postponed through Saturday? There are still games this Week 15 with yet to be played to impact the AFC playoffs, before turning the page entirely to Week 16 and beyond.

The difference is minimal, but if you play everything else the Dolphins need — to win and win over Sunday’s Bills Patriots — a Raiders win over the Browns increases the Dolphins’ playoff chances by more than 99 percent, while the Browns do. The win over the Raiders puts them on 98.

There may be many different permutations, but in its simplest form, the Dolphins’ easiest route to a post-season run essentially involves Miami winning their final three games and Buffalo taking the top spot in New England on Sunday. If those four results, it is highly unlikely that the Dolphins will be excluded from the season onwards.

World Nation News Deskhttps://www.worldnationnews.com
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