The FED: with some voices saying that they have not yet decided whether a further increase is necessary, others who continue to advance a substantial further reduction of the FED’s balance sheet, the others urge not to rush statements about the “disinflationary process”, warning that an intermittent policy damages credibility. Financial conditions relaxed significantly after the FED meeting on the movement of IRRs and dollars.
BoE: While some companies must adapt to a world of higher rates, others see little room for rate cuts.
/ BoJ: In the words of Ueda, a weak yen is not only negative for the economy and expects a possible positive effect if the scenario of a soft landing in the United States and lower prices can be verified. The BoJ, in “another league”, continues monetary support even though it has already laid the foundations for ending the policy of negative rates and controlling the curve if they see inflation.
Markets “bought” the broad disinflationary trend, from the United States to the United Kingdom, and the reduction or normalization of some data. Thus, the IRRs continue to cut the voice of the data, despite the more cautious messages from the central banks in relation to the reductions in implicit discounts.
We opened a week of surveys in Europe (PMIs, IFO), where the continuation of recessive readings is the norm. In addition, we will continue to get nuances about the FED and ECB debates in the publication of the respective minutes of the latest meetings.