Monday, March 4, 2024

what to expect from the last part of COP28

Less than 120 hours left so that the 196 States participating in the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations on climate change have reached an agreement. Or not. Because a climate summit does not necessarily end satisfactorily. It doesn’t have to end on time either.

Although that is the goal of the president of the COP held in Dubai, Sultan Al-Jaber. In media statements, he assured that he would, “At the latest”, the negotiations were concluded at 11 am on the 12th from December.

His comment caused many raised eyebrows. And anyone who has closely followed climate summits of the past — even if they were the last — can conclude that they rarely end as their organizers intended. According to Carbon Brief, The last one to have an agreement on the same day as it was planned was COP10, held in Buenos Aires in 2004.

(The Earth, which is about to cross the five tips: “These are the threats that humanity has never faced”)

The challenge is great, especially at a summit where it is again debate whether to talk about the reduction or progressive elimination of fossil fuels in the final agreement. The person who was the highest representative of the UN on climate change during the historic agreement in Paris in 2015, Christiana Figueres, explained her position in the statements of The Guardian.

“If we want this COP to be one of progress, we need to talk about the elimination of fossil fuels“, said. Only in this way, he insisted to the British media, that “a political message will be sent with consequences to companies that must decide where they invest.”

So far, all the drafts have been shared with the media so far world balance (Global Stocktake, or GST, in English) continues to be a battleground for fossil fuels. Now, with the announcement of the ministerial peers (one country from the global north and another from the south is in charge of leading each part of the negotiations) and the first meetings of the day, the narrative may begin to change .

Besides, Al-Jaber assured the delegates that he “wants to see the parties leave their comfort zone.” In other words, he said, what the negotiating teams of countries need to reach agreements on the three texts that, at the moment, are on the table.

On the one hand, there is the aforementioned GST, which will set the direction (and the expectations, whether high or low) of the next national climate plans. It should also be ready by 2025 at the latest. Mitigation, adaptation and financial support for loss and damage are important for them.

On the other hand, the Mitigation Work Program (MWP) will set the course for renewable energy and its investments until 2030. Finally, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) should provide a road map for climate change adaptation investments beyond the end of this decade.

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