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Friday, January 27, 2023

Where is the world population going with 8 billion people?

It took humanity hundreds of thousands of years to reach the first billion people, but then everything picked up speed. Today there are already 8,000 million inhabitants on the planet, although forecasters expect a change in trend by the end of the century.

It is suspicious that on exactly 15 November the world population exceeded 8 billion. But since it is impossible to keep track of the hundreds of thousands of births and deaths in a single day, the United Nations chose the middle of the month to mark the time when Earth reaches this milestone for humanity. Never before have there been so many people on earth.

How did humanity reach this point?

Homo sapiens arose, it is believed, around 300,000 years ago. In the last millennium, apart from epidemics such as the plague, there was a steady increase in the number of humans. Little by little, the growth accelerated and around the year 0, there were approximately 190 million people living on the planet.

With longer lifespans, the curve flattened out significantly from about 1700 onwards. And the first Arabs probably arrived soon after 1800.

It took less than 100 years for the world population to go from 2 billion in 1928 to 8 billion today. And the increase from 7 billion to 8 billion took only eleven years.

Cause to celebrate or worry?

For Natalia Kanem, executive director of the United Nations Population Fund, the current figure has several positive aspects.

Ultimately, he maintains, it represents a fundamental leap. “Eight billion people is an important milestone for humanity,” Kanem told a recent meeting of UN experts. And it is a combination of increased life expectancy, lower maternal and child mortality rates and increasingly effective health systems. Is.”

Kanem recognized that the fact that many people are concerned about overpopulation is an unfounded fear.

He insisted, “I am here to state categorically that the mere number of lives lost is no cause for fear.” As per the UN assessment, there is no doubt that there are sufficient resources; What matters is fair and equitable distribution.

Frank Swiaczny of the German Institute for Demographic Research clarified that “more people do not mean a larger ecological footprint”, taking into account global warming.

Experts point out that almost half of the world’s CO2 emissions are caused by the world’s highest-income ten percent of the population, while the poorest half have a negligible impact.

Sustainable Development? opposite of this

“The rate of growth of the world’s population is slowing,” explained UN expert Rachel Snow. The highest annual growth, he said, was in 1964 at 2.2 per cent per annum. “But now we’re growing at less than 1 percent a year,” he said.

According to recent studies, this trend will continue until 2080, when the world population is predicted to stop growing. Again, these reports suggest that the number of people would be 10.4 billion.

Which regions of the world are developing and how?

Development has been particularly focused on Asian countries with large populations.

China, the world’s most populous country with 1.4 billion people, is facing major challenges due to low birth rates due to its long-standing one-child policy.

Experts justify this trend by the fact that many people who grew up as only children consider it normal to have only one child.

With more than 1.3 billion people, India has a high birth rate and could overtake China next year.

But even in India, the rate of population growth slows down, thanks to the greater availability of contraceptives.

Meanwhile, nowhere in the world will the population increase as much in the near future as in some parts of Africa.

“Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow significantly according to current projections. Most of the future growth in the world’s population will occur in this region and some Asian countries,” predicted Swiaczny.

According to the German Foundation for World Population, approximately 1.4 billion people currently live in Africa. According to this source, this figure will grow to around 2.5 billion by 2050.

By the end of the century, three times more people will live in Africa than today, about 4.3 billion people, about 40 percent of the world’s population.

In contrast, high-income countries such as Japan are sliding into negative demographic trends. Therefore, countries like Germany have to resort to migration in order to achieve a stable growth rate.

The United Nations has advised in a report that “all countries, regardless of whether they experience a net inflow or outflow of migrants, should take steps to facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration.”

And the next milestone?

Surely when 9,000 and 10,000 million people reach the earth, there will be upheaval again.

However, the United Nations does not expect a real tipping point until the year 2100. Experts believe that after this a steady decline in the world’s population will begin. But as is the case with weather forecasting, forecasts of population growth become more uncertain as future time periods increase.

dpa

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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